Confidence pool calculator
Put more points on the picks you believe are more likely to win.
PGO model confidence picks · Ratings boardExpected pool points = add up (confidence points × your selected team's win chance). A 10-point pick with a 70% win chance contributes 7 expected points. It actually earns 10 if correct, or 0 if incorrect.
Enter your own probability assumptions below. These are not PGO-issued win probabilities. This calculator does not submit picks, save an entry, or change any locked forecast. Changing a team clears its probability. Reloading clears your entries.
Use each point value from 1 through the number of games once. Ties and incorrect picks earn zero here; check that your pool uses those rules. Win chances should include the possibility of a tie.
| Game | Selected team | Your win chance (%) | Confidence points |
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What this tells you
For fixed picks and the rules above, assigning the most points to the highest win chances maximizes expected points. Equal win chances use the order you entered the games. Games do not have to be independent for this sum to work.
Expected points are a long-run average, not a promised score. Maximizing that average is different from maximizing your chance of finishing first against other entries.
PGO's saved margins are not yet established as reliable win percentages. A positive monotonic conversion from margin to probability preserves confidence ordering. It can improve probability estimates without changing which games get the most points.