2026 Preseason NFL Power Ratings

Experimental model — HOLD

PGO v1 Power Ratings

Postgame Outlet's independent statistical rating, compared with McCabe's human rating and never blended.

Backtest: v1 MAE 10.205 vs v0 10.266; improvement +0.061, 95% CI -0.024 to +0.145.
McCabe Preseason 2026 locked 2026-07-16T11:22:52-04:00.
PGO pgo_v1 as of 2026-07-21T12:00:00-04:00. Hold reason: aggregate improvement ci positive.

All 32 NFL teams comparing McCabe and PGO ratings

New England Patriots	1	+7.0	+0.0	1	+7.0	8	+4.0	-7	+3.0
Los Angeles Rams	2	+6.7	+0.0	2	+6.7	1	+7.5	+1	-0.8
Seattle Seahawks	3	+6.4	+0.0	3	+6.4	3	+6.0	+0	+0.4
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	+6.3	+0.0	4	+6.3	11	+3.0	-7	+3.3
Baltimore Ravens	5	+5.2	+0.0	5	+5.2	4	+5.5	+1	-0.3
Buffalo Bills	6	+4.4	+0.0	6	+4.4	2	+7.0	+4	-2.6
San Francisco 49ers	7	+4.1	+0.0	7	+4.1	7	+4.5	+0	-0.4
Denver Broncos	8	+3.5	+0.0	8	+3.5	17	+1.5	-9	+2.0
Philadelphia Eagles	9	+3.4	+0.0	9	+3.4	14	+2.5	-5	+0.9
Houston Texans	10	+3.3	+0.0	10	+3.3	10	+3.0	+0	+0.3
Pittsburgh Steelers	11	+3.2	+0.0	11	+3.2	22	+0.0	-11	+3.2
Detroit Lions	12	+2.3	+0.0	12	+2.3	13	+3.0	-1	-0.7
Chicago Bears	13	+1.7	+0.0	13	+1.7	12	+3.0	+1	-1.3
Los Angeles Chargers	14	+1.6	+0.0	14	+1.6	6	+5.0	+8	-3.4
Green Bay Packers	15	+1.0	+0.0	15	+1.0	19	+1.0	-4	+0.0
Minnesota Vikings	16	+0.4	+0.0	16	+0.4	20	+1.0	-4	-0.6
Kansas City Chiefs	17	-0.0	+0.0	17	-0.0	9	+4.0	+8	-4.0
New York Giants	18	-0.4	+0.0	18	-0.4	26	-1.0	-8	+0.6
Atlanta Falcons	19	-0.6	+0.0	19	-0.6	27	-1.0	-8	+0.4
Cincinnati Bengals	20	-0.6	+0.0	20	-0.6	5	+5.0	+15	-5.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21	-1.9	+0.0	21	-1.9	15	+2.5	+6	-4.4
Indianapolis Colts	22	-2.2	+0.0	22	-2.2	23	-0.5	-1	-1.7
New Orleans Saints	23	-2.6	+0.0	23	-2.6	25	-0.5	-2	-2.1
Carolina Panthers	24	-2.8	+0.0	24	-2.8	21	+0.5	+3	-3.3
Dallas Cowboys	25	-3.5	+0.0	25	-3.5	16	+2.0	+9	-5.5
Miami Dolphins	26	-3.5	+0.0	26	-3.5	31	-4.5	-5	+1.0
Washington Commanders	27	-3.8	+0.0	27	-3.8	18	+1.0	+9	-4.8
Cleveland Browns	28	-5.0	+0.0	28	-5.0	28	-2.5	+0	-2.5
Arizona Cardinals	29	-6.4	+0.0	29	-6.4	29	-3.5	+0	-2.9
Las Vegas Raiders	30	-7.5	+0.0	30	-7.5	30	-4.0	+0	-3.5
Tennessee Titans	31	-7.6	+0.0	31	-7.6	24	-0.5	+7	-7.1
New York Jets	32	-12.1	+0.0	32	-12.1	32	-5.5	+0	-6.6

Positive rank gap means PGO ranks the team lower. Positive rating gap means PGO rates the team higher.

Backtest receipt · Methodology and release rules

Snapshot Click any column to sort · pick a past week to see ratings as they stood

All 32 NFL teams ordered by current Power Rating

1	—	Matthew Stafford	+5.5	+1.0	+1.0	+6.75	+7.5
2	—	Josh Allen	+6.5	+1.0	-0.5	+6.00	+7.0
3	—	Sam Darnold	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+9.75	+6.0
4	—	Lamar Jackson ▲inj	+4.5	+0.5	+0.5	+2.25	+5.5
5	—	Joe Burrow ▲inj	+5.0	+0.5	-0.5	-0.25	+5.0
6	—	Justin Herbert	+4.0	+0.5	+0.5	+2.00	+5.0
7	—	Brock Purdy	+2.5	+1.5	+0.5	+4.00	+4.5
8	—	Drake Maye	+3.0	+0.5	+0.5	+6.00	+4.0
9	—	Patrick Mahomes ▲inj	+4.5	+0.0	-0.5	-4.25	+4.0
10	—	C.J. Stroud	+0.5	+0.5	+2.0	+3.50	+3.0
11	—	Trevor Lawrence	+3.0	+0.0	+0.0	+5.00	+3.0
12	—	Caleb Williams	+3.0	+0.5	-0.5	+2.75	+3.0
13	—	Jared Goff	+2.0	+1.0	+0.0	+3.25	+3.0
14	—	Jalen Hurts	+2.0	+0.0	+0.5	+4.25	+2.5
15	—	Baker Mayfield	+2.0	+1.0	-0.5	-0.75	+2.5
16	—	Dak Prescott	+1.5	+0.5	+0.0	-0.50	+2.0
17	—	Bo Nix	-0.5	+0.0	+2.0	+1.25	+1.5
18	—	Jayden Daniels	+2.0	+0.0	-1.0	-2.25	+1.0
19	—	Jordan Love	+1.0	+0.5	-0.5	+2.00	+1.0
20	—	Kyler Murray	-0.5	+1.0	+0.5	+0.00	+1.0
21	—	Bryce Young	+0.5	+0.0	+0.0	-1.75	+0.5
22	—	Aaron Rodgers	-1.0	+0.0	+1.0	-0.50	+0.0
23	—	Daniel Jones	+0.0	+0.0	-0.5	-1.75	-0.5
24	—	Cam Ward	+0.0	-0.5	+0.0	-5.50	-0.5
25	—	Tyler Shough	-1.0	+0.5	+0.0	-2.50	-0.5
26	—	Jaxson Dart	-1.0	-0.5	+0.5	-2.00	-1.0
27	—	Michael Penix Jr.	-2.0	+1.0	+0.0	-0.75	-1.0
28	—	Deshaun Watson	-2.5	-1.0	+1.0	-3.50	-2.5
29	—	Jacoby Brissett	-1.5	-1.0	-1.0	-3.75	-3.5
30	—	Kirk Cousins	-2.5	-0.5	-1.0	-6.00	-4.0
31	—	Malik Willis	-1.5	-1.5	-1.5	-3.25	-4.5
32	—	Geno Smith	-2.0	-2.0	-1.5	-9.00	-5.5

Rating = QB + Offense + Defense (each in points vs. a league-average team, 0.0).
Off / Def are non-QB unit values. End '25 is last season's ending rating, shown for reference. Green = above average, red = below.

QB value in points vs. a league-average QB (0.0). Starters ranked 1–32, then the top 18 backups. · click any QB to explore

Starting QBs

Starting quarterback ratings
#	Age	Exp	Team	Tier	Value
1	30	8	+7.0	Elite	+6.5
2	38	17	+7.5	Elite	+5.5
3	30	6	+5.0	Elite	+5.0
4	29	8	+5.5	Top tier	+4.5
5	31	9	+4.0	Top tier	+4.5
6	28	6	+5.0	Top tier	+4.0
7	24	2	+4.0	Top tier	+3.0
8	27	5	+3.0	Top tier	+3.0
9	25	2	+3.0	Top tier	+3.0
10	27	4	+4.5	Top tier	+2.5
11	28	6	+2.5	Above avg	+2.0
12	26	2	+1.0	Above avg	+2.0
13	32	10	+3.0	Above avg	+2.0
14	31	8	+2.5	Above avg	+2.0
15	29	8	+6.0	Above avg	+2.0
16	33	10	+2.0	Above avg	+1.5
17	28	6	+1.0	Above avg	+1.0
18	25	3	+3.0	Above avg	+0.5
19	25	3	+0.5	Above avg	+0.5
20	29	7	-0.5	Average	+0.0
21	24	1	-0.5	Average	+0.0
22	27	2	+1.5	Average	-0.5
23	29	7	+1.0	Average	-0.5
24	43	21	+0.0	Below avg	-1.0
25	23	1	-1.0	Below avg	-1.0
26	27	1	-0.5	Below avg	-1.0
27	27	4	-4.5	Below avg	-1.5
28	34	10	-3.5	Below avg	-1.5
29	36	13	-5.5	Below avg	-2.0
30	26	2	-1.0	Below avg	-2.0
31	31	9	-2.5	Replacement	-2.5
32	38	14	-4.0	Replacement	-2.5

Top 18 Backups

Backup quarterback ratings
#	Age	Exp	Team	Tier	Value
1	23	2	+1.0	Replacement	-2.5
2	28	6	-1.0	Replacement	-2.5
3	24	3	-0.5	Replacement	-2.5
4	27	5	+4.0	Replacement	-2.5
5	41	18	+5.0	Replacement	-3.0
6	33	11	+1.0	Replacement	-3.0
7	28	5	+4.5	Replacement	-3.0
8	24	1	-2.5	Replacement	-3.0
9	32	11	-1.0	Replacement	-3.0
10	22	R	-4.0	Replacement	-3.0
11	28	6	+5.5	Replacement	-3.5
12	28	4	+0.5	Replacement	-3.5
13	34	12	+3.0	Replacement	-3.5
14	37	15	+1.0	Replacement	-3.5
15	30	7	+6.0	Replacement	-3.5
16	26	2	-0.5	Replacement	-3.5
17	31	8	+0.0	Replacement	-3.5
18	30	7	-3.5	Replacement	-3.5

The quick version

Welcome to the Postgame Outlet power ratings corner. In a nutshell, our power ratings tell you how many points better or worse a team is than an average NFL team. If Green Bay is a +9, we see them as nine points stronger than a league-average team on a neutral field. If Kansas City is +8.5, Green Bay would be about half a point better than the Chiefs somewhere neutral.

These are living numbers — they move as we get new info: injuries, trades, or just last year's data mattering less as the new season takes shape. One thing we don't bake in is motivation. A team on a losing streak might come out extra fired up, and we leave that layer of context to you. Use the ratings to read the NFL landscape at a glance, and revisit them as the league changes.

What this is

A roster-based, points-denominated power rating for all 32 NFL teams. Every team's rating is expressed in points versus a league-average team (0.0) and is the straight sum of its parts:

Team Rating = QB + Offense (non-QB) + Defense

A rating of +7.0 means that team would be favored by about a touchdown over a perfectly average team on a neutral field.

How the numbers are set

QB — the dominant lever. 0.0 ≈ a middling starter (roughly QB16–18). Elite quarterbacks land +5 to +6.5; the worst starters floor around −2.5. Values are expected 2026 value, so injury and availability risk is already priced in.
Offense / Defense — the non-QB units, centered at average. Most teams sit within about ±1.0, driven by the 2026 free-agency and draft roster movement.

Honesty & caveats

Teams marked ▲inj had a 2025 finish deflated by an injured or benched starter, so they're weighted toward roster talent rather than last year's record.